00:00
Layoff announcements skyrocketed toward the end
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of 2025, as generative AI and economic tightening
00:07
pressure corporations to restructure their
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workforces. Many companies are cutting costs by
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trimming middle management and,
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in certain industries, eliminating entry level
00:17
roles that can be replaced by AI.
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But layoffs aren't the only thing experts are concerned
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about. Generative AI is speeding up how people work,
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but that efficiency can come at the trade off of
00:29
maintaining skills and rising up the corporate
00:32
ladder.
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It might save a buck now.
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The challenge becomes, in a few years down the
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road, where is the pipeline of talent to move into those
00:41
really important middle ranks of your company?
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I think there's going to be a market failure,
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whereby companies are reticent to really continue
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to invest in training young people,
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instead of just simply turning to the cheaper AI to
00:56
do those tasks if they fear some competitor is just
00:59
going to poach.
01:00
The way you make a senior employee is not through
01:02
school. It's by doing the job alongside someone who
01:05
knows more. And you learn by doing.
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And that's where the bulk of our skill comes from.
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Here's how AI may be killing people's chances at a
01:13
promotion.
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Globally, nearly 40% of workers core skills will be disrupted by
01:26
2030 due to AI and digitalization.
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But it may be more difficult for entry-level employees to
01:32
build the skills they need due to organizational
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flattening.
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The process for building skill has been the same for
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about 160,000 years, and it consists of trying to
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do something that is close to the edge of your
01:46
capability, but not at it, alongside someone who
01:49
actually has already done it repetitively and knows how
01:52
to do it, i.e. an expert.
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So a novice and an expert working together on a real
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problem. You work your way through a number of
01:58
problems, and eventually you find yourself with somebody
02:00
looking over your shoulder trying to learn from you.
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New technology, such as generative AI allows
02:06
an expert to work faster, which means companies may
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not preserve the novice expert bond in order to save
02:12
time and money.
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In occupations where AI can perform most tasks,
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the share of workers in that role fell by about 14% over
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five years.
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Why would I involve someone in the work that would slow
02:24
it down and make more mistakes if I don't have to?
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The answer is I wouldn't.
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I don't. I found this in robotic surgery in 2012
02:32
through 2014, and published studies about
02:34
that. Junior surgeons are now strictly optional in
02:36
robotic surgery. Instead of participating for 4.5 hours
02:40
in a four hour procedure, they participate for 10 to
02:43
15 minutes. That is still true,
02:45
and that is true at scale, now with LLMs.
02:48
So it's not about management, it's about
02:50
expert, novice and breaking that relationship.
02:53
The challenges. If everyone takes that mindset of I
02:56
can't guarantee these folks are going to stick around
02:59
and be my mid-level talent, I'm just going to save a
03:02
buck today. If everyone does that,
03:04
the entire pipeline of talent starts to collapse,
03:07
and in a few years, employers in lots of sectors
03:10
are going to find themselves in trouble.
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Generative AI is currently able to do the work of some
03:14
entry-level employees, but right now at least,
03:17
it isn't capable of taking on more advanced tasks that
03:20
may require interpersonal skills or sensitive
03:23
judgment.
03:24
So think the law partner advising clients as opposed
03:28
to sort of sitting behind a desk and drafting contracts.
03:31
So the challenge is going to be what happens if employers
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thin out their ranks of those early career jobs that
03:40
bridge education to that kind of expertise?
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How in the world are young people going to get trained
03:46
up to come in at a level three,
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if they haven't done level one and level two?
03:50
This is a really existential challenge for employers
03:54
because they might be excited to save on labor
03:57
costs today. So why am I going to invest in training
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up if the billable hours aren't there with the young
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lawyers? Why am I going to take on extra first year
04:06
associates that I don't need in the same leanest model.
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Why would my competitor not just poach those young
04:13
people?
04:14
We need to expect that the economy is not investing to
04:17
keep this expert-novice relationship alive in the
04:20
work. In fact, we are aggressively breaking
04:23
that relationship through default use of AI.
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And that means in 3 to 5 years,
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whatever firms, organizations,
04:29
occupations, we're counting on that ladder continuing to
04:31
work are going to face a new nasty set of problems.
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Cleanup is always harder than prevention.
04:37
This notion of how people are going to advance in
04:40
their careers, what is the training going
04:42
to look like? What has to happen first in higher-ed to
04:45
get them ready for these roles? But importantly,
04:47
what should employers be doing differently to train
04:50
up workers? If those early career low stakes,
04:53
but still well-paid roles, are thinning out?
04:56
You know, how do we make sure employers aren't just
04:59
optimizing only for the short run?
05:01
I personally think we probably need some public
05:03
policy tools and some outside intermediaries to
05:07
really help with this training challenge.
05:09
This is also a problem for companies.
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63% of employers surveyed expect skills gaps in the
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labor market to hinder organizational
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transformation.
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42% of employers expect talent availability to
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decline between 2025 and 2030.
05:25
Beane says companies must re-engineer workflows that
05:28
include advanced technology but also allow novices to
05:32
participate.
05:33
The whole world has this huge,
05:35
inventive opportunity to say,
05:36
okay, this thing currently, if you use it in default
05:40
ways, is going to separate and weaken this bond between
05:44
experts and novices in the work.
05:46
Is there a way that it could make those things healthier?
05:49
I think the answer is absolutely yes.
05:51
Beane recommends the skill workers learn,
05:54
is how to learn and to be adaptable.
05:57
I call it meta-learning or meta-skill.
05:59
You need to learn the skills for getting good at
06:01
something, because the next thing you're going to have
06:04
to get good at, we haven't invented yet,
06:06
but it's coming faster than it ever has before.
06:08
Practice it repeatedly until A you can help yourself,
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but B, much more importantly,
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you can help other people, protect their skill.
06:16
And then maybe even design tech that can help everybody
06:19
not dumb themselves down with the current AI that
06:22
we've got. Firms that add new automation,
06:26
new classes of automation in their markets win and grow,
06:30
because they're more efficient. They outcompete
06:31
their competitors. The competitors are the ones
06:33
that shed jobs, typically.
06:35
So if you're seeing big layoffs from a firm that's
06:37
really well run right now, it's not because they're
06:41
needing to shrink because they're not efficient
06:43
enough. They're probably just thinking about how do
06:46
we need to rebuild ourselves for the future.
06:48
In general, the logic is if you want to grow healthily
06:51
over the mid and longer term,
06:53
you want to retain talent, redirect and head towards
06:56
you need to go, to the extent that you can.