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Many of you here have probably heard of the 10,000 hours rule.
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Itโs the idea that to become great in anything takes
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10,000 hours of focused practice.
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So youโd better get started as early as possible.
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The poster child for this story is Tiger Woods.
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His father famously gave him a putter when he was seven months old.
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Fast forward to the age of 21โ heโs the greatest golfer in the world.
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Quintessential 10,000 hours story.
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Another is that of the three Polgar sisters,
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whose father decided to teach them chess in a very technical manner
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from a very early age.
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Two of his daughters went on to become grandmaster chess players
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I got curious: if this 10,000 hours rule is correct,
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then we should see that elite athletes get a head start
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in so-called deliberate practice.
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And in fact, when scientists study elite athletes,
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they see that they spend more time in deliberate practice.
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Not a big surprise.
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When they actually track athletes over the course of their development,
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the pattern looks like this:
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the future elites tend to have what scientists call a sampling period,
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where they try a variety of physical activities.
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They gain broad general skills and delay specializing
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until later than peers who plateau at lower levels.
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That doesnโt really comport with the 10,000 hours rule, does it?
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So I started to wonder about other domains that we associate
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with obligatory early specialization, like music.
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Turns out the pattern is often similar.
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The exceptional musicians didnโt start spending more time in deliberate practice
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than the average musicians until their third instrument.
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They too tended to have a sampling period.
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Even musicians we think of as famously precocious, like Yo-Yo Ma.
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So this got me interested in exploring the developmental backgrounds
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of people whose work I had long admired.
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Duke Ellington shunned music lessons as a kid
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to focus on baseball and painting and drawing.
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Mariam Mirzakhani wasnโt interested in math as a girl,
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dreamed of becoming a novelist,
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and went on to become the first and so far only woman to win the Fields Medal,
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the most prestigious prize in the world in math.
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Vincent van Gogh had five different careers before flaming out spectacularly,
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and, in his late 20s,
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picked up a book called โThe Guide to the ABCs of Drawing.โ
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Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer at the University of Michigan
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who took a philosophy course just to fulfill a requirement.
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And in it he learned about a near century-old system of logic
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by which true and false statements could be coded as ones and zeros
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and solved like math problems.
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This led to the development of binary code,
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which underlies all of our digital computers today.
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Frances Hesselbein took her first professional job at the age of 54,
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and went on to become the CEO of the Girl Scouts.
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Hereโs an athlete Iโve followed.
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He tried some tennis, some skiing, wrestling.
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His mother was actually a tennis coach,
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but she declined to coach him because he wouldnโt return balls normally.
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And he kept trying more sports:
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handball, volleyball, soccer, badminton, skateboarding.
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So who is this dabbler?
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This is Roger Federer.
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Every bit as famous as an adult as Tiger Woods.
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And yet even tennis enthusiasts don't usually know anything
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about his developmental story.
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Why is that?
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I think itโs partly because the Tiger story is very dramatic,
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but also because it seems like this tidy narrative
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that we can extrapolate to anything that we want to be good at in our own lives.
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But it turns out that in many ways, golf is a uniquely horrible model
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of almost everything that humans want to learn.
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Golf is the epitome of what the psychologist Robin Hogarth
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called a kind learning environment.
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Next steps and goals are clear; rules that are clear and never change.
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When you do something, you get feedback that is quick and accurate.
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Chess, also a kind learning environment.
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On the other end of the spectrum are wicked learning environments
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where next steps and goals may not be clearโ rules may change.
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You may or may not get feedback when you do something,
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it may be delayed, it may be inaccurate.
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Which one of these sounds like the world we're increasingly living in?
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So if hyper-specialization isnโt always the trick in a wicked world, what is?
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That can be difficult to talk about,
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because sometimes it looks like meandering or zigzagging or keeping a broader view.
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It can look like getting behind.
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But if we look at research on technological innovation,
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it shows that increasingly the most impactful patents are authored
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by teams that include individuals
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who have worked across a large number of different technology classes
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and often merge things from different domains.
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Someone whose work I've admired, who was sort of on the forefront of this,
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is a Japanese man named Junpei Yokoi.
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Yokoi didn't score well in his electronics exams at school,
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so he had to settle for a low-tier job as a machine maintenance worker
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at a playing card company in Kyoto.
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He combined some well-known technology from the calculator industry,
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with some well-known technology from the credit card industry,
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and made handheld games.
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And it turned this playing card company,
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which was founded in a wooden storefront in the 19th century,
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into a toy and game operation.
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You may have heard of it, itโs called Nintendo.
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His magnum opus was the Game Boy.
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We probably don't make as many of those people as we could,
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because we don't tend to incentivize anything that doesn't
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look like a head start or specialization.
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And naturally, I think there are as many ways to succeed as there are people,
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but I think we tend only to incentivize and encourage the Tiger path,
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when increasingly, in a wicked world, we need people
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who travel the Roger path as well.
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Or as the eminent physicist and mathematician and writer
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Freeman Dyson put it:
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โFor a healthy ecosystem, we need both birds and frogs.
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Frogs are down in the mud seeing all the granular details.
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The birds are soaring up above, not seeing those details,
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but integrating the knowledge of the frogs.โ
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And we need both.
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The problem, Dyson said, is that weโre telling everyone to become frogs.
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And I think in a wicked world, that's increasingly shortsighted.